Weather junkies get your fix
As we approach slowly, slowly, the season in which the weather may resemble what passes for winter in this area, you eager cross fans might get a kick out of the NOAA Forecast Discussion, which reports on the expected weather with much finer granularity than the typical talking head evening forecast. Here's an excerpt from today's discussion of the upcoming weekend's rain front:
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR DISTRICT. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN IS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH SFO BAY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA LATE THAT NIGHT OR DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ONE TODAY...AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER PRECIP. EXAMINATION OF LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS MAX RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT 1.25 INCHES AT THE WETTEST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY COASTAL HILLS...0.25-0.60 INCHES IN THE HEART OF THE SFO BAY AREA...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHERNMOST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF PROJECT A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF... AND IN FACT THE NEW 18Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS EVEN HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE TO THE NORTH BAY COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXAMINATION OF NAM/WRF OUTPUT INDICATES SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB GETTING UP AS HIGH AS 35- 40 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY IS ULTIMATELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILLS.
Did ya get all that?
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR DISTRICT. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN IS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH SFO BAY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA LATE THAT NIGHT OR DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ONE TODAY...AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER PRECIP. EXAMINATION OF LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS MAX RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT 1.25 INCHES AT THE WETTEST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY COASTAL HILLS...0.25-0.60 INCHES IN THE HEART OF THE SFO BAY AREA...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHERNMOST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF PROJECT A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF... AND IN FACT THE NEW 18Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS EVEN HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE TO THE NORTH BAY COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXAMINATION OF NAM/WRF OUTPUT INDICATES SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB GETTING UP AS HIGH AS 35- 40 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY IS ULTIMATELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILLS.
Did ya get all that?
posted by Dave Carr at 4:25 PM
4 Comments:
but it should be nice for some awesome racing on sunday!!
Thank goodness we're not in the bay area!
Not exactly a mud fest up at Rancho Seco today, but excellent cross weather. It was cold, raining and some places (where I fell) were a bit muddy. Sac Wheelmen set up a sweet lap. Fast course, lots of snaking through trees and parking lots. Fast 2 barrier dismounts and a couple of logs to run over. My boys weren't big enough to try and bunny hop the short one. Rich M. looked totally awesome making it look easy. And actually it was a nice park we raced in today with the Twin Nuc's looking down at us.
I got sick racing at Rancho Seco!
Felt horrible and I think the air was bad!
I think the twin Nuc's were not healthy for a cross race!
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